Institute for Monitoring Economic Growth (I.M.E.G) - has announced the opinion

poll results, conducted in connection with the ensuing election to the Kerala Legislative

Assembly 2011, in a press conference held in the Press Club, Trivandrum today. Shri.

A.Meera Sahib, Director, of the Institute released the report in the presence of Shri.

A.M.Joseph, Registrar and Shri.T.P.Mukundan, Joint Registrar.

Survey results reveal that the United Democratic Front (U.D.F) may win the election

in 72-82 Assembly seats, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) may get 58-

68 Assembly seats, and the Bharathiya Janatha Party (BJP) has very little chance to

open an account in the Kerala Assembly elections,even though they may improve

their position. The survey has been conducted between March 21 and March 29,

2011 in the Assembly segments. The survey results are framed based on three

surveys- Swing survey, Anti-incumbency survey and Opinion poll. The Opinion poll has

been conducted using secret ballots in the selected wards and households selected

randomly. Altogether 59,678 people responded in three surveys. The results have

been pooled and published.

After giving due weightage and considering other factors reported by the survey

teams it is calculated that the U.D.F may win in 72-82 Assembly seats as against 58-68

Assembly seats in which the L.D.F may win.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

There is very strong contest in 20 assembly segments.

FUNDING

The survey exercises were not funded by any agency. The faculty members,

district co-coordinators and Quality Control Supervisors of the of the Institute (IMEG )

and some volunteers participated in the survey work.

SAMPLING ERROR

It is calculated that there may be a sampling error of 1-2 % in all the three surveys

IMEG, Kerala had done four Psephology studies earlier in connection with the Lok

Sabha by - election in Ernakulam L.S Constituency during 2003, L.S Election during

2004,Assembly Election 2006 and L.S Election 2009.All the studies were success

stories and the opinion poll results tally with election results. This is the fifth edition in

the series.