The Institute - Institute for Monitoring Economic Growth( I.M.E.G )- has conducted three surveys simultaneously in connection with the ensuing election to the Kerala Legislative Assembly ,pooled the results and released the same in a press conference held in the Press Club ,Trivandrum today. Shri A.MeeraSahib, Director, of the Institute released the report in the presence of Prof.M.Safarulla Khan, Registrar, Dr.S.Thajudeen,Joint Secretary, M/s A.M.Joseph and T.P.Mukundan,Senior Faculty and Shri A.K.Hameed ,the observer on the survey activities.

Survey results reveal that the L.D.F may form the next Government with a comfortable majority of 92-102 seats in the Assembly, while the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) will get only 38-48 seats, and the Bharathiya Janatha Party (BJP) has very little chance to open an account in the Kerala Assembly elections. The survey had been conducted between April 3 and April 17 ,2006 in the 140 Assembly segments.

I. SWING SURVEY

The First survey was a Swing Survey based on the shift in the voting pattern of the voters from 2001 Assembly Election to the current election .Swing Survey results shows that there is a swing towards the Left Democratic Front, the percentage of voters changed there leniency towards the L.D.F being 5 to 9.5 %.Based on the swing it is assumed that the L.D.F may bag 94-104 seats and the ruling U.D.F may get 36-46 seats. In this case the next term of rule in Kerala will be in the hands of L.D.F lead by C.P.I (M)

II. ANTI-INCUMBENCY SURVEY

The second one was an Anti-incumbency survey based on 12 variables including development of the state, crisis in agriculture front, policy on education ,public debt, Goonda/ mafia rule, police excess, inflation, how govt. tackled the tsunami crisis, communalism, corruption in govt. These two surveys were conducted in selected wards of 20% Grama panchayats /Nagarapalikas , covering 12960 households and 45360 voters. The results show that the electorate may favour L.D.F in 92-102 seats and the U.D.F in 38-48 seats.

a. DEVELOPMENT

With regard to a question on development 10.56 % voters asked the counter question what is development ? 49.14 % answered that there is no development and 40.30% there is development.

b. CRISIS IN AGRICULTURE SECTOR

While 32.43 % of voters said that the crisis in the agriculture sector is further versioning, 55.04 % opined that there is crisis and 12.53 declared that the crisis is over

c. POLICY ON EDUCATION

Regarding the educational policy of the present regime 28% of the voters supported the Govt, 43.49% voted against the govt and 28.51 % opined that the policy is hopeless.

d. EMPLOYMENT

The majority of voters participated in the survey opined that the employment opportunities are decreasing including in the traditional sector.55.28 % felt it is decreasing while 7.13 % answered positively.2.21 % has no opinion.

e. ATROCITIES AGAINST WOMEN

24.08% said that the atrocities against women increased, 34.64% opined that the same is continuing in the same level and 41.28 % is worried about the spread of the atrocities through out the state irrespective of regions.

f. PUBLIC DEBT

10 5 of voters have no idea about the increase or decrease of public debt ,but 35.38% said that the debt is increasing and 36.12 % believe that the same increased very much compared to all previous Govts.

g. GOONDA/ MAFIA REGIME

58.72 % of the voters felt that the influence of unlawful Goonda/ mafia regime is increasing very much day by day in Kerala.25.06 believe that the same is continuing as such. 16.22 % said that the same has been under control.

h. POLICE EXCESS

21.03 % believe that there is no police excess..60.05 % opined that the same has increased and 18.92 recorded that the excess crossed all limits.

i. INFLATION

To a question on price rise 65.36% of voters expressed that the Govt failed miserably in controlling the price rise.they pointed out the increase in the price of essential tackled the tsunami tackled the tsunami crisis especially rice ,sugar etc.22.60 % voters participated in the anti-incumbency survey said that the price rise only as usual.12.04 % believe that it is under control.

j. TACKLING OF THE TSUNAMI CRISIS

24.32 % believe that the Govt. tackled the situation as usual and 56.51 % said that the Govt. machinery failed miserably to tackle the situation.11.79 % has supported the Govt. action on it.

k. COMMUNALISM

35.63 % opined that the spread of communal influence in Kerala is only nominal 50.86 % of the respondents opined that the Govt. failed to prevent the spread of communal inflence.13.51 % supported the Govt.

l. CORRUPTION IN GOVERNMENT

53.81 % reiterated that the corruption in Government has increased and 38.87 % reported that it is spreading very fast and 10.32 % is of the opinion that there is no visible corruption.
Political leniency, of the participants of the anti-incumbency survey, in the ensuing election says 53.32 % of voters may vote for L.D.F and 39.31 % for U.D.F and 5.16 % FOR B.J.P and 2.21 % is not supporting any front. According to them no front can save the state.

III. OPINION POLL

The third one was an opinion poll using secret ballots. Altogether 33628 voters in the 140 constituencies participated in the hit & run survey. After counting the votes separately for each constituency, it is revealed that the L.D.F may get 94-104 seats

IV. COMBINED RESULTS

After giving due weight age and considering other factors reported by the survey teams it is calculated that the L.D.F may get 92-102 seats and the U.D.F 38-48 seats.

V. OTHER OBSERVATIONS

Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) (DIC-K) will face bid defeat in the upcoming assembly elections.

VI. FUNDING

Theses exercises were not funded by any agency. Voluntary services of the faculty members of the IMEG, Kerala and well wishers from non governmental/voluntary organizations participated in the survey work.

VII. SAMPLING ERROR

It is calculated that there may be a sampling error of 1-2 % in all the three surveys

IMEG,Kerala had done two Psephology studies earlier in connection with the Lok Sabha by - election in Ernakulam L.S Constituency during 2003 and L.S Election during 2004.Both the studies were success stories...