Hat-trick victory for IMEG Opinion Poll Survey

The Assembly Election results totally tally with the Opinion Poll results announced earlier by the Institute for Monitoring Economic Growth (IMEG).The two earlier surveys conducted by IMEG--one during the L.S by-election of Ernakulam and the second one on the L.S Election 2004-- were also success stories and with this a hat-trick victory for the Psephology Centre of IMEG, a Research Organization based at Thiruvananthapuram. IMEG predicted victory for LDF based on 3 Survey Operations conducted simultaneously, viz. Swing Survey, Ant incumbency Survey and an Opinion Poll using dummy ballot papers. Results of the three Surveys were pooled and arrived at the final results .A comparative analysis of the findings on the Opinion Poll and the assembly election results tell us this fact.

Survey results revealed that the L.D.F may form the next Government with a comfortable majority of 92-102 seats in the Assembly, the Assembly Election results show that the L.D.F got a comfortable majority of 98 seats. The survey predicted that the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) will get only 38-48 seats, the results show that the UDF won in 42 Seats . Among other observations the survey concluded that the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) (DIC-K) will face bid defeat in the upcoming Assembly Elections. Among 18 seats contested it could win only one seat .The defeated include the President Mr.Muraleedharan and Parliamentary Party leader Mr. T.M.Jacob of the DIC-K. Regarding the chances of independent candidates and Ayaram-Gayaram politicians, the Opinion Poll results announced that they are facing rough time and chances of winning any seat are remote. The electorates have not selected any candidate from that genre.

According to the IMEG Opinion Poll, the Bharathiya Janatha Party (BJP) has very little chance to open an account in the Kerala Assembly Elections. This finding also becomes true. Unlike other surveys IMEG had not predicted any seat for others. The anti-incumbency survey report also exposed clear anti-incumbency wave in 12 variables viz development of the state, crisis in agriculture front, policy on education , unemployment Goonda/ mafia rule, police excess, inflation, tackling of the tsunami crisis, communalism, corruption in Government, public debt, atrocities against women.

The survey results announced on 19th April,2006 were carried by almost all leading print, electronic media and the websites. The detailed report can be browsed in http://www.imegkerala.org The survey operations were carried out during April 3-17 , 2006 by a team of 54 covering the entire State , led by A. Meera Sahib, Director, Prof. M. Safarulla Khan, Registrar, A.M. Joseph, T.P. Mukundan and P.Viswanathan Unni , faculty members of the Institute. A.K. Hameed , Social Activist was the observer who traveled with the Research Team to assess the survey operations.